Blindside  how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /  [electronic resource] : 
Francis Fukuyama, editor. 
 - Washington, D.C. :  Brookings Institution Press,  c2007. 
 - vi, 198 p. ;  24 cm. 
<br/><br/> "An American Interest Book." 
<br/><br/>Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. 
<br/><br/>The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. 
<br/><br/> "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. 
<br/><br/><br/>Electronic reproduction. <br/>Palo Alto, Calif. : <br/>ebrary, <br/>2009. <br/>Available via World Wide Web. <br/>Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries. 
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<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>Emergency management--United States.<br/>International relations.
<br/><br/><label>Index Terms--Genre/Form: </label><br/>Electronic books.
<br/><br/><label>LC Class. No.: </label>HV551.3  / .B57 2007eb 
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>363.34/7