TY  - BOOK
AU  - Fukuyama,Francis
ED  - ebrary, Inc.
TI  - Blindside: how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics 
AV  - HV551.3 .B57 2007eb
U1  - 363.34/7 22
PY  - 2007///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - Brookings Institution Press
KW  - Emergency management
KW  - United States
KW  - International relations
KW  - Electronic books
KW  - local
N1  - "An American Interest Book."; Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index; The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index; Electronic reproduction; Palo Alto, Calif.; ebrary; 2009; Available via World Wide Web; Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries
N2  - "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher
UR  - http://ezproxy.taylors.edu.my/login?url=http://site.ebrary.com/lib/taylorscollege/Doc?id=10193747
ER  -