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008 | 100712s2007 dcu sb 001 0 eng | ||
010 | _z 2007-027757 | ||
020 | _z9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper) | ||
020 | _z0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper) | ||
035 | _a(CaPaEBR)ebr10193747 | ||
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_aBlindside _h[electronic resource] : _bhow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / _cFrancis Fukuyama, editor. |
260 |
_aWashington, D.C. : _bBrookings Institution Press, _cc2007. |
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300 |
_avi, 198 p. ; _c24 cm. |
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500 | _a"An American Interest Book." | ||
504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. | ||
505 | 0 | _aThe challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. | |
520 | _a"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. | ||
529 | _aTSLHHL | ||
533 |
_aElectronic reproduction. _bPalo Alto, Calif. : _cebrary, _d2009. _nAvailable via World Wide Web. _nAccess may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries. |
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_aEmergency management _zUnited States. _920270 |
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_aInternational relations. _9710 |
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_aElectronic books. _2local |
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_aFukuyama, Francis. _9610 |
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_aebrary, Inc. _925628 |
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_uhttp://ezproxy.taylors.edu.my/login?url=http://site.ebrary.com/lib/taylorscollege/Doc?id=10193747 _zAn electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
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